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SoCal Housing Bubble Update: Prices Down 38% from Peak, Possibly More Declines to Come

Monday, November 7th, 2011

Per Jon Lansner at OCRegister.com, the average home price in Los Angeles and Orange Counties has now fallen 38% since the peak in 2006. Between the price declines and record low interest rates, purchasing power for home buyers hasn’t been this good in a very long time.

You would think that after a nearly 40% drop in home prices we’d be near the bottom, but more price declines could be coming down the line. According to Peter Schiff, who predicted the housing bust in the first place, things could get much worse before they get better for Los Angeles and OC real estate. (more…)

Why It’s So Hard to Get A Business Off the Ground

Thursday, November 18th, 2010

This is from Mish’s website and it is a very revealing look at why it can be tough to get a business going. In a tough economic climate like today, we should be doing all we can to encourage business startups, not saddle them with absurd regulation. Particularly take note of what a street vendor has to go through to get a business off the ground in Miami.  Check out the video below the fold. (more…)

Average College Graduate Last Year Had $24,000 In Student Loan Debt

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

CNN reports that the average college senior finishing school last year graduated with $24,000 in student loan debt, an increase of 6% from the year before.  As student debt levels have risen, job prospects have dimmed with the troubled economy, making it challenging for many graduates to repay their debts and get ahead financially. According to the CNN article, “unemployment for recent college graduates jumped from 5.8% in 2008 to 8.7% in 2009 — the highest annual rate on record.”

Many graduates having trouble finding a job to support themselves are choosing to move back in with their parents.

High debt loads and poorer job prospects will result in what I call the “delayed” generation – a generation of people that will be forced to delay marrying, forming a family, buying a home, and saving for retirement because of high debt loads.  Anybody that’s ever had significant debt understands how burdensome it can be, and how it becomes almost an additional member of the household that has a say in every financial decision.

(more…)

Fortune: Tax and Regulatory Uncertainty Paralyzing Business

Monday, October 25th, 2010

Fortune published a great article recently that highlights how important it is to the economy – and job growth – for the government to provide a consistent and predictable operating environment for business. From the article:

Dick Kelly wishes he knew what his industry should do. “If we had a national policy and knew what the rules were, we could take action,” says Kelly, CEO of Xcel Energy and chairman of the Edison Electric Institute, the association of shareholder-owned electric utilities. But Kelly’s industry knows only that momentous changes in the federal laws governing it are probably on the way; what those changes might be, and when they might happen, managers have no idea. So they “are holding up decisions,” Kelly says, on multibillion-dollar investments to convert old coal-fired power plants to natural gas. “Is there going to be a price on carbon?” he asks. “Will there be a timeline? Will we have to use a certain percentage of renewables?” No one knows, so nothing is happening.

Multiply the utilities’ experience across the economy, and we begin to see an important reason why growth is getting slower rather than faster as the recovery creeps along. When people aren’t sure what’s going to happen, they freeze. We all know it, and if you require validation of your instincts, check the scientific literature on “uncertainty paralysis.” When we’re unsure, we turn especially cautious.

Government has the power to change the rules in the middle of the game, businesses can only play by the rules they are given. (more…)

Banks May Be Facing Buybacks on Bad Loans

Friday, October 22nd, 2010

After all the financial chaos of the last two years, the big banks may be facing yet another crisis. Bloomberg reports that “Pacific Investment Management Co., BlackRock Inc. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are seeking to force Bank of America Corp. to repurchase soured mortgages packaged into $47 billion of bonds by its Countrywide Financial Corp. unit”.  Bondholders cited “servicing failures” by Countrywide Financial as a major reason they’re pushing for the repurchases. Remember that Countrywide Financial was once one of the largest mortgage originators in the country and was rescued by and absorbed into Bank of America in early 2008.  Bondholders allege that Countrywide failed to execute foreclosures in a timely manner because of “missing documents, process mistakes and insufficient staffing to evaluate borrowers for loan modifications”.

The “missing documents” theme has also been front and center in the so-called foreclosuregate or robosigning mess, which Bank of America has also been instigated in.  The bank recently halted foreclosures in 23 states because of documentation irregularities that called into question the validity of many of its foreclosures. Bank of America has since said it would resume foreclosures, but foreclosuregate is probably going to be an issue for a while.

ZeroHedge reports that Wells Fargo, one of the biggest originators of risky pay-option ARMs at the height of the housing bubble, could be facing some significant repurchase trouble as well.  From ZeroHedge:

The only pages in Wells Fargo’s typically labyrinthine earnings release were 26 through 30, in which Warren Buffett’s bank, which continues to be in denial over Fraudclosure and still refuses to admit it also was a RoboSigner, discloses its putback/repurchase liability. The total disclosed repurchase reserve liability as of September 30 was $1.3 billion. This compares to Bank of America‘s total Rep and Warranty liability of $4.4 billion, which as we disclosed yesterday took a tiny provision of $872 million in Q3. This means that when, not if, Wells is also subject to a comparable action by litigants such as the one from yesterday which included Gross, Fink and Dudley on the offensive, the hit to the bank will be that much more dire. And since Wells management now has zero credibility, and negative fiduciary duty to its shareholders, we are currently combing through the MaidenLane portfolio to determine which New York Fed securitizations include loans originated by Wells Fargo. We are confident quite a few will make the cut. After all, as the bank itself notes, of its $1.8 Trillion Resi Mortgage Servicing Portfolio, “8% [or $144 Billion] are private securitizations where Wells Fargo originated the loan and therefore has some repurchase risk.

If Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and others are forced to repurchase large numbers of bad loans, its probably safe to conclude that bank financials and stock prices – and taxpayers – could be facing a big hit in the future.

-CH

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