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Fortune: Tax and Regulatory Uncertainty Paralyzing Business

Monday, October 25th, 2010

Fortune published a great article recently that highlights how important it is to the economy – and job growth – for the government to provide a consistent and predictable operating environment for business. From the article:

Dick Kelly wishes he knew what his industry should do. “If we had a national policy and knew what the rules were, we could take action,” says Kelly, CEO of Xcel Energy and chairman of the Edison Electric Institute, the association of shareholder-owned electric utilities. But Kelly’s industry knows only that momentous changes in the federal laws governing it are probably on the way; what those changes might be, and when they might happen, managers have no idea. So they “are holding up decisions,” Kelly says, on multibillion-dollar investments to convert old coal-fired power plants to natural gas. “Is there going to be a price on carbon?” he asks. “Will there be a timeline? Will we have to use a certain percentage of renewables?” No one knows, so nothing is happening.

Multiply the utilities’ experience across the economy, and we begin to see an important reason why growth is getting slower rather than faster as the recovery creeps along. When people aren’t sure what’s going to happen, they freeze. We all know it, and if you require validation of your instincts, check the scientific literature on “uncertainty paralysis.” When we’re unsure, we turn especially cautious.

Government has the power to change the rules in the middle of the game, businesses can only play by the rules they are given. (more…)

Banks May Be Facing Buybacks on Bad Loans

Friday, October 22nd, 2010

After all the financial chaos of the last two years, the big banks may be facing yet another crisis. Bloomberg reports that “Pacific Investment Management Co., BlackRock Inc. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are seeking to force Bank of America Corp. to repurchase soured mortgages packaged into $47 billion of bonds by its Countrywide Financial Corp. unit”.  Bondholders cited “servicing failures” by Countrywide Financial as a major reason they’re pushing for the repurchases. Remember that Countrywide Financial was once one of the largest mortgage originators in the country and was rescued by and absorbed into Bank of America in early 2008.  Bondholders allege that Countrywide failed to execute foreclosures in a timely manner because of “missing documents, process mistakes and insufficient staffing to evaluate borrowers for loan modifications”.

The “missing documents” theme has also been front and center in the so-called foreclosuregate or robosigning mess, which Bank of America has also been instigated in.  The bank recently halted foreclosures in 23 states because of documentation irregularities that called into question the validity of many of its foreclosures. Bank of America has since said it would resume foreclosures, but foreclosuregate is probably going to be an issue for a while.

ZeroHedge reports that Wells Fargo, one of the biggest originators of risky pay-option ARMs at the height of the housing bubble, could be facing some significant repurchase trouble as well.  From ZeroHedge:

The only pages in Wells Fargo’s typically labyrinthine earnings release were 26 through 30, in which Warren Buffett’s bank, which continues to be in denial over Fraudclosure and still refuses to admit it also was a RoboSigner, discloses its putback/repurchase liability. The total disclosed repurchase reserve liability as of September 30 was $1.3 billion. This compares to Bank of America‘s total Rep and Warranty liability of $4.4 billion, which as we disclosed yesterday took a tiny provision of $872 million in Q3. This means that when, not if, Wells is also subject to a comparable action by litigants such as the one from yesterday which included Gross, Fink and Dudley on the offensive, the hit to the bank will be that much more dire. And since Wells management now has zero credibility, and negative fiduciary duty to its shareholders, we are currently combing through the MaidenLane portfolio to determine which New York Fed securitizations include loans originated by Wells Fargo. We are confident quite a few will make the cut. After all, as the bank itself notes, of its $1.8 Trillion Resi Mortgage Servicing Portfolio, “8% [or $144 Billion] are private securitizations where Wells Fargo originated the loan and therefore has some repurchase risk.

If Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and others are forced to repurchase large numbers of bad loans, its probably safe to conclude that bank financials and stock prices – and taxpayers – could be facing a big hit in the future.

-CH

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Gallup Finds US Unemployment at 10% in Mid-October

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

We won’t be seeing another official unemployment report from the government until the Friday after the election, but Gallup is already giving us a preview of things to come. From Marketwatch:

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 10.0% in mid-October — essentially the same as the 10.1% at the end of September but up sharply from 9.4% in mid-September and 9.3% at the end of August. This mid-month measurement confirms the late September surge in joblessness that should be reflected in the government’s Nov. 5 unemployment report.

I hate to sound cynical, but the world is what it is. I fully expect unemployment to climb significantly after the election. It doesn’t seem to matter who is in the White House, the official numbers are always “propagandized” or spun in some way to benefit the administration or party in power. With a crucial midterm election this year, the federal government has seemingly gone out of its way to make sure the unemployment rate didn’t break the 10% psychological barrier and deal the Democrats an electoral loss even worse than what it is already shaping up to be.  Once the election is over, I fully expect that some reality will be allowed back into the numbers once again.

-CH

Need to sell a house? We buy houses for cash, even if you owe more than it’s worth, with no commissions or fees! Give us a call at (714) 583-9004 or fill in the web form on our home page and we’ll get back to you within 24 hours!

Officials in 50 States Launch Foreclosure Probe

Monday, October 18th, 2010

The “foreclosuregate” mess continues to grow as officials in all 50 states are now investigating mortgage servicers in response to “allegations that questionable documents were used to support potentially hundreds of thousands of foreclosures nationwide.” Lenders such as Chase and GMAC have already suspended foreclosures in many states due to the document irregularities.  Bank of America has suspended foreclosures in all 50 states.

Some lawmakers are calling for a nationwide moratorium on foreclosures. If such a moratorium is passed (can such a thing even be done at the federal level?), the consequences for the banks could be serious. Without the ability to foreclose, the value of the loans on their books are seriously called into question because there is no collateral to back them up. And without the ability to clear defaulted loans through the foreclosure process, distressed inventory will continue to pile up on the banks books, which could really depress home prices once foreclosures resume. Even worse, title insurers are already calling into question the title on previously foreclosed homes. If the legitimacy of the foreclosure is in doubt, so too is the title to the property. And if the title is questionable, the insurer won’t issue a new title policy when the property is purchased. And if a homebuyer can’t get title insurance, they certainly aren’t going to be able to get a home loan. That can’t be good for the real estate market.

Interesting times indeed.

-CH

Need to sell a house? We buy houses for cash, even if you owe more than it’s worth, with no commissions or fees! Give us a call at (714) 583-9004 or fill in the web form on our home page and we’ll get back to you within 24 hours!

30-Year Fixed Rates Drop to Record Low of 4.19%

Saturday, October 16th, 2010

Mortgage interest rates dropped to a new record low this week of 4.19% as the Federal Reserve continues to dump liquidity into the economy in an effort to get people and businesses to borrow. It is well understood that the economy grows when people and businesses have access to credit. But how can you get people to borrow more when they already have too much debt and too few jobs? And how can you get businesses to borrow and invest more when the tax, regulatory, and economic outlook is so uncertain? Seems to me that the Fed’s exercise in monetary stimulus will pretty much be useless until people and businesses deleverage.

If you’re in the market to buy a home, you are loving these interest rates.  Your home purchasing power has never been higher – if you can qualify.

For a little perspective on where rates have been in the past, check out the following graph (data courtesy of HSH.com). Click for an enlarged view.

Historical FRM Interest Rates 1985-2010

Historical fixed-rate mortgage interest rates 1985-2010. Data courtesy of HSH.com. Click for an enlarged view.

-CH

Need to sell a house? We buy houses for cash, even if you owe more than it’s worth, with no commissions or fees! Give us a call at (714) 583-9004 or fill in the web form on our home page and we’ll get back to you within 24 hours!